A downtrend since almost the beginning of the month (including a big down day yesterday) followed by a strong Spanish auction, good housing starts data and an unexpected rise in German business confidence are the recipe for the strong bounce we’re seeing today (the S&P500 is up over 2.5% today as I type). We’re still down around 2% for the year and I still think the Santa Claus rally takes us to 0% or slightly higher for the year.